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David Harrell is the editor of the Morningstar StockInvestor, a monthly newsletter that focuses on a wide-moat stock investing strategy. For illustration purposes, issues highlight activities pertaining to Morningstar, Inc. portfolios invested in accordance with a strategy that seeks to focus on companies with stable or growing competitive advantages. David served in several senior research and product development roles and was part of the editorial team that created and launched Morningstar.com. He was the co-inventor of Morningstar's first investment advice software.

David joined Morningstar in 1994. He holds a bachelor's degree in biology from Skidmore College and a master's degree in biology from the University of Illinois at Springfield.

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Matthew Coffina, CFA, is the portfolio manager for Morningstar Investment Management LLC’s Hare strategy. Matt was previously a senior healthcare analyst, covering managed care and pharmaceutical services companies. Matt also developed the discounted cash flow model used by Morningstar analysts to assign fair value estimates to most of the companies in its global coverage universe.

Matt joined Morningstar in 2007. He holds a bachelor's degree in economics from Oberlin College and also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.

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Prior to joining Morningstar in 2004, Michael worked at a public accounting firm and in the business lending arm of a major commercial bank. He has an undergraduate accounting degree from Loyola Marymount University, an MBA from Cornell University and is a CFA charterholder.

 
Apr 26, 2018
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David Harrell
Editor, Morningstar StockInvestor
David Harrell is the editor of the Morningstar StockInvestor, a monthly newsletter that focuses on a wide-moat stock investing strategy. For illustration purposes, issues highlight activities pertaining to Morningstar, Inc. portfolios
Featured Posts
Roundup 4/20/2018 -- Results for Amex, GE, and More

StockInvestorSM focuses on the activities of portfolios of Morningstar, Inc. that are invested in accordance with the Tortoise and Hare strategies. These portfolios are managed by Morningstar Investment Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, which manages other client portfolios using these strategies.

General Electric GE reported its first quarter results today and the company maintained its full-year guidance range for earnings per share and free cash flow. Morningstar, however, plans to reduce its fair value estimate for GE from $23.50 a share to approximately $19 a share, reflecting a lower assumption for return on new invested capital. Please see a new analyst note from Morningstar Research Services below for more details.

Also below are new analyst notes for American Express AXP, Bank of New York Mellon BK, BlackRock BLK, Novartis NVS, Omnicom OMC, Unilever UL, UnitedHealth UNH, and WPP WPP.

On a lighter note, long-term investors in Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B have seen strong returns. It appears that investors who have squirreled away their Berkshire annual reports can add to that return by hawking the older ones on eBay.

Best wishes,

David Harrell,
Editor, Morningstar StockInvestor

GE Maintains EPS and Cash Flow Guidance, Accelerates Cost-Cutting; We Reduce Our Fair Value Estimate
by David Silver, CFA, CPA | Morningstar Research Services LLC | 04-20-18

GE's stock reacted positively on Friday to first-quarter results that pointed to greater stability and improved operational execution amid a mixed outlook for end market demand.

Notably, management maintained its full-year guidance ranges of $1.00-$1.07 for adjusted EPS as well as $6 billion-$7 billion for Industrial free cash flow. Structural cost-out totaled $805 million in the quarter, and the company now expects to exceed its $2 billion full-year cost elimination target. Of the total first-quarter reduction in structural costs, the largest sources were in the Power segment ($354 million, roughly 44% of the total) and Corporate ($176 million, 22%). We suspect a notable lack of new negative surprises calmed investors and reduced uncertainty.

However, we plan to reduce our fair value estimate to roughly $19 from $23.50 previously mainly to reflect a lower assumed RONIC (10% versus 30% previously) and to incorporate a lower historical earnings baseline per GE's recently restated financial results. The restatements reduced our 2016-17 adjusted EPS by 16% and 9%, respectively.

The company remains a work in progress, and CEO John Flannery and CFO Jamie Miller are intently focused on executing a multi-year program to re-make the company into a smaller, leaner, and more customer-focused version of itself that revolves around its world-leading franchises in in Aviation, Power, Renewable Energy, and Healthcare.

GE reported adjusted EPS of $0.16 (versus $0.14 one year ago), including adjusted EPS of $0.18 from industrial operations ($0.14) and a loss of $0.02 from GE Capital ($0.01 loss). The seasonally slow first-quarter results reflected notable strength in core Aviation and Healthcare segments and accelerated productivity improvement, largely balanced by incremental demand and margin weakness in Power and Oil & Gas.

Quarterly orders of $27.4 billion rose 10% overall and were flat organically, with orders for Equipment and Services both nearly flat year over year.

The order book reflects double-digit growth in Aviation and Renewable Energy, plus mid-single-digit growth in Healthcare, which in sum offset an expected steep drop in Power orders. Power received zero orders for its new H-series gas turbines, which we consider a clear sign for incremental downside risk.

Quarterly industrial cash flow was a use of $1.7 billion, which is an improvement of $1.1 billion versus the prior year. Significantly, industrial operations accounted for nearly the entire improvement and more than offset the significant working capital build to support the LEAP engine ramp-up.

GE forecasts Industrial free cash flow of between $6 billion and $7 billion in 2018, compared with anticipated annual dividends totaling roughly $4.2 billion. However, GE faces a number of significant calls on cash flow from non-operating or unusual items in 2018. These include pension funding ($6 billion contribution to cover three years through 2020), long-term care insurance reserves ($3.5 billion contribution in 2018 as part of a planned $15 billion infusion over seven years), purchase of redeemable preferred stock interests ($3.8 billion commitment tied to its Alstom acquisition), a potential settlement for its past subprime mortgage exposure ($1.5 billion reserve established in early 2018), along with cash restructuring costs and other items.

While funds from GE Capital will meet some of these obligations, management intends to boost industrial cash balances by roughly $4 billion during 2018, which, in our view, will require incremental funds from either asset sales, working capital liquidation, or debt issuance.

Growth Tailwinds More than Offset Competitive Pressures in American Express' 1Q
by Jim Sinegal | Morningstar Research Services LLC | 04-18-18

Wide-moat American Express reported year-over-year revenue growth of 12% in the first quarter of 2018, as growth in spending and borrowing benefited both sides of the company's business. Billed business grew by 10%, with international volumes (both consumer and small business) growing at healthy double-digit rates (16% and 20%, respectively). Loan balances grew by 16% during the year as well. Management now expects annual earnings to come in at the high end of its $6.90-$7.30 guidance. Our forecasts are in line with these expectations, and we are maintaining our $112 per share fair value estimate.

Operating expenses grew just 5% during the quarter, including a 3-percentage-point impact from currency movements. Marketing and business development spending grew 5% as cuts in marketing spend were offset by significantly higher payments to cobrand partners. We believe these increased payments are a result of the strengthening bargaining position of American Express' partners—the airline and hotel industries, for instance, have benefited from consolidation over the past two decades. Similarly, cardmember services spending rose by 29% as American Express spent more on perks from partners such as airline lounge access and free bag allowances. All that said, the company was able to grow pretax income by 13% as solid growth in net interest income (up 23% year over year) and noninterest income (up 9% year over year) more than offset rising demands from partners. Furthermore, the company's tax rate fell to 21.5% from 32%, leading to a 31% increase in net income to common shareholders and a 38% increase in diluted EPS.

Yields on card member loans expanded by 0.50% year over year, as introductory rates rolled off and management increased pricing. American Express is liability-sensitive, and should experience rising deposit betas as its relatively sophisticated banking customers seek higher yields on deposit balances.

Excellent Start to 2018 for BNY Mellon; Raising Our FVE
by Eric Compton | Morningstar Research Services LLC | 04-19-18

Wide-moat-rated Bank of New York Mellon reported excellent first-quarter results that were ahead of our short-term expectations for the company. After making some minor adjustments, we are increasing our fair value estimate to $58 per share from $55. Despite only minor quarter-over-quarter growth for assets under custody/administration and a decline in assets under management, fee revenue managed to come in ahead of our expectations. There was also a higher boost to net interest margins than we were expecting, adding to a beat on this line item as well. Finally, expenses remained well controlled, up only 4% year over year, leading to an increase in net income of 23%, even after excluding the effects of a lower tax rate and buybacks. This led to a return on tangible equity of 26%, a strong result indeed. While this is only a single quarter, after the numerous changes last quarter under new CEO Charles Scharf, such strong results so quickly are nice to see.

BlackRock Acquires Niche Credit Firm Tennenbaum Capital Partners; No Change to Our FVE
by Greggory Warren, CFA | Morningstar Research Services LLC |  04-18-18

We do not expect to make any meaningful changes to our $600 per share fair value estimate for wide-moat rated BlackRock following the company's announcement that it has purchased Tennenbaum Capital Partners, a specialty credit manager with $9 billion in AUM at the end of 2017, for an undisclosed amount. With BlackRock closing out the March quarter with $6.316 trillion in managed assets, the deal is extremely small when compared with its overall operations. It does, however, add even more diversification to the company's expanding portfolio of alternative investment products and solutions, with TCP focused on private credit investment opportunities--including middle market performing credit and special situation credit opportunities. It also fits with CEO Larry Fink's desire to have BlackRock generating more and more of its growth derived from higher fee generating alternatives in the near to medium term.

We've noted for quite some time that given the size and scale of its existing operations, as well as the strong growth vehicle that BlackRock already has in its iShares ETF platform, that the firm was unlikely to do another large-scale acquisition, preferring to focus on small bolt-on deals that filled in product holes or further expanded its global reach. Although this deal is small, and based on our estimates will cost the firm between $140 million and $165 million (assuming a management fee rate of 40 basis points, EBITDA margins of 40%, and a takeout multiple of 9.5-to-11.5 times EBITDA), it is filling a hole in credit alternatives, with TCP benefiting from the increased resources, scale, and market access that BlackRock can bring to bear. It is also important for us that the firm's senior management team, including all five partners, will remain with TCP.

Novartis Posts Steady 1Q, as Branded Drugs and Alcon Offset Weakness in Generic Sales
by Damien Conover, CFA | Morningstar Research Services LLC | 04-19-18

Novartis reported first-quarter results slightly ahead of both our expectations and those of consensus, but we don't expect any significant changes to our fair value estimate based on the minor outperformance. We still view the stock as undervalued, with the investment community likely underappreciating the strong innovation in areas of unmet medical need that should support strong pricing power of drugs, as well as the company's wide economic moat.

Within the largest division of branded pharmaceuticals (66% of sales), increasing traction with new drugs helped offset generic competition on older drugs, leading to total operational branded drug sales growth of 6%, a growth rate that should continue throughout the year. While the launch of immunology drug Cosentyx (5% of total sales) continues to post robust year-over-year growth, the sequential decline from fourth-quarter 2017 is concerning. However, stocking and rebating patterns pressured the sequential decline, and we expect the drug to return to sequential quarterly growth later in the year based on increased volumes in the first-line psoriasis setting, as the drug has an excellent efficacy and safety profile. Further, we don't expect a competitive head-to-head study from J&J's Tremfya to show superiority versus Cosentyx later in the year, given similar profiles in cross-trial comparisons.

Outside of Cosentyx, other new drug launches continue to progress well. Cardiovascular drug Entresto continues to ramp well after a slow initial start, and we project peak sales over $5 billion by 2023, with upside if additional clinical data in preserved ejection fraction heart failure is positive in 2019. While breast cancer drug Kisqali is off to a slow start with only $44 million in sales for the quarter, we expect the drug to develop into a blockbuster, but to still only gain about 15% of the large market due to its late entry relative to Pfizer's Ibrance and less differentiated clinical profile.

Omnicom Kicked Off 2018 with Strong 1Q Results; Maintaining $85 FVE; Shares Remain Undervalued
by Ali Mogharabi | Morningstar Research Services LLC | 04-17-18

Omnicom's 2018 first-quarter results beat our expectations and consensus with strong organic growth partially offset by the impact of dispositions. Management maintained its full-year organic growth guidance of 2%-3%. We slightly adjusted our full-year revenue projection higher, but are maintaining our $85 fair value estimate for the company. While the stock is up 2% in reaction to the strong first quarter numbers, it remains a 4-star name, and we continue to view shares of this narrow-moat name as undervalued. In addition, at current levels, Omnicom's dividend yield stands at over 3%.

First-quarter total revenue came in at $3.6 billion, up 1.2% year over year, driven by 2.4% organic growth and 4% foreign exchange, partially offset by divestures that lowered revenue by 4.2%. Organic decline of 0.1% in North America revenue, which was mostly driven by weakness in Canada and some 2017 client losses cycling through, was more than offset by strong organic growth in most other regions. European, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America regions posted organic growth rates of 12.3%, 7.3%, and 3.1%, respectively. In Europe, sales of services in the U.K. grew 3.1% organically driven mainly by strengths in advertising, media, PR, and healthcare. Latin America was helped by some sequential improvement in the Brazil market, although it continued to experience a year-over-year decline. Revenue from Middle East and Africa declined 8.5% driven mainly due to lower media spending in UAE (United Arab Emirates). For the year, management maintained its 2%-3% organic revenue growth guidance. The firm also expects the second half of 2018 to be stronger than the first.

The firm's reported first quarter operating margin of 11.6%, up nearly 20 basis points from last year as lower salary and services expenses were partially offset by an increase in G&A. While we are impressed with the unexpected margin expansion in the first quarter, we continue to expect higher investments by Omnicom in talent and additional resources in data and analytics for the rest of 2018. For this reason, we are staying with our margin decline assumption for the full year.

During the earnings call, management provided more color regarding the firm's strategy going forward, which we continue to view as encouraging. First, in our view, the firm is very cognizant of the transitions taking place within the ad space as it is increasing its focus on 1-on-1 and highly targeted advertising and marketing.

Second, while the firm is investing in data and analytics, it is also well aware that continuing consumer engagement brought forth more by creativity within the direct and target messages is crucial. As we mentioned in our December 2017 Select report on other companies within the ad space, creativity is what differentiates ad agencies from consulting and technology companies.

Last, Omnicom's recent success in maintaining accounts and/or winning new clients, is indicative of how well the firm is executing those strategies. During the first quarter, Amgen, one of the largest pharmaceutical companies with a $116 billion market capitalization, decided to keep Omnicom as its media agency. Before such a decision, Amgen had initiated a review of the account, for which Publicis and WPP also pitched. Some reports indicate that Amgen's media spending in 2018 may increase around 45% to $350 million this year. Johnson & Johnson has also decided to stay with Omnicom after the ad holding firm provided Johnson & Johnson with more integrated creative and CRM services. We note that Johnson & Johnson is also working with WPP on the creative side. And on the new accounts front, Omnicom's creative agency, Goodby, Silverstein & Partners, landed the BMW account, displacing KBS, which is owned by MDC. Plus, the firm announced today that its BBDO creative ad agency won the Dunkin' Donuts account and replaced IPG, which had been an agency of Dunkin' Donuts since 1998.

Undervalued Unilever Posts Solid but Not Spectacular 1Q Sales Growth
by Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM | Morningstar Research Services LLC | 04-19-18

Unilever's first-quarter sales update was very close to both our estimates and consensus, with underlying sales growth in the core business (excluding spreads) of 3.7%. The more significant news was the announcement of an 8% increase in the dividend, above our expectation, and a EUR 6 billion share-buyback program. We think this will create value for shareholders, as we regard Unilever as undervalued, with over 10% upside to our fair value estimate. We are reiterating our EUR 52 valuation and our wide moat rating, which was evident in the solid volume growth reported across most of the business.

In the context of fading pricing power, increasing competition from small brands, and emerging channels, Unilever's underlying 3.7% first-quarter organic sales growth is respectable, albeit a slight sequential slowdown from the fourth quarter and a whisker under our 4% medium-term assumption. Growth skewed a little more toward volumes than we had anticipated, with a contribution from price/mix of just 0.1%, which underlines the inability of manufacturers in commoditized categories to pass through pricing in the current environment. Still, underlying volume growth of 3.6% excluding spreads is a solid number, and we think the volume growth strategy is appropriate to defend shelf space in mainstream channels, shelf space that is critical to Unilever's wide economic moat.

While these sales growth numbers are solid, if not spectacular, a key tenet of our investment thesis is Unilever's margins, and no update on this was provided. Stronger price/mix would clearly help the gross margin, but volume growth may deliver some operating leverage. We continue to forecast a 19% medium-term operating margin on 4% steady-state sales growth, some 150 basis points above the 2017 margin. First-half results will shed more light on whether Unilever is on track to meet that forecast, but we take encouragement that volume growth is ticking along nicely in spite of the challenging environment.

Solid Performance by Optum Drives United's 1Q Results
by Vishnu Lekraj | Morningstar Research Services LLC | 04-17-18

UnitedHealth reported first-quarter results that fell in line with our expectations, and we are reiterating our $190 fair value estimate and narrow moat rating for the managed-care organization. We remain bearish on the stock's valuation given concerns over its core health insurance operations. However, over the next several years, we expect the firm's Optum division to drive solid results, and its first-quarter results reflect this trend. The firm reported excellent revenue growth and profit expansion for all Optum divisions. From our perspective, healthcare firms that provide cost savings and efficiency services will thrive over the coming decades. With this as the backdrop, we believe United has built a formidable healthcare services player in Optum and this business will be highly beneficially to shareholders given our overall outlook for the healthcare market.

Despite the good results from its healthcare-services division, United's core health insurance operation had mixed results, as revenue growth was strong with flat profit margins. The firm was able to leverage increased premiums due to a resumption of the Affordable Care Act insurer fee (insurers can raise premiums to offset this fee) and drive a lower medical loss ratio. However, this tailwind was offset by an increase in administrative expenses due to the same fee.

Martin Sorrell Steps Down; WPP's Market Leadership Position Not at Risk
by Ali Mogharabi | Morningstar Research Services LLC | 04-15-18

To our surprise, while the CEO of WPP, Martin Sorrell, initially disputed the improper use of funds and personal misconduct allegations, the firm stated on Saturday that Sorrell is resigning, albeit he continues to deny the allegations. While Sorrell's departure may hurt WPP's relationship with clients in the short term, we think such an impact will be minimal given that Sorrell has not been as instrumental in winning new businesses as he was years ago. In our view, the firm's narrow moat rating remains intact as WPP's brand equity and the strong reputations of its ad agencies are based on the quality of services the firm continues to provide for its clients. This news does not alter our expectations of no organic growth for this year, which we think will be followed by 1% growth in 2019. We are maintaining our GBX 1,500 fair value estimate ($103 for the ADR shares).

Departure of Sorrell will likely push WPP shares lower in the short term. However, we remain bullish on the stock for a few reasons. First, we continue to rate WPP with a narrow moat as its brand equity and the strong reputations of its ad agencies are based on the quality of services and not necessarily Sorrell’s leadership.

Second, while no additional detail was provided by the firm, Sorrell's resignation is likely a decision he thinks is best for WPP shareholders, in our view. We note that he still has a 2% stake in the firm.

Third, while Sorrell's departure may hurt WPP's relationship with clients in the short term, we think such an impact will be minimal as he has not been as instrumental in winning new businesses as he was years ago. We look for the firm to show signs of stability to its clients by replacing Sorrell quickly. WPP’s board has appointed Mark Read and Andrew Scott as the firm’s co-COOs, which we think indicates some steadiness for WPP as both are WPP veterans and have worked closely with Sorrell in the past. Read is currently the CEO of WPP’s Wunderman and Scott is overseeing WPP’s operations in Europe. Under the leadership of Read and Scott, we expect WPP’s restructuring efforts, which were a result of clients demanding more transparency and better prices, to continue. We think the restructuring will help the firm operate more efficiently, possibly resulting in some operating leverage.

Last, with new leadership, the firm may implement some of the strategies that we discussed in our March 18 note a bit more quickly. They include possible sales of some of its assets such as the custom research side of the Data Investment Management business and more aggressive integration of creativity and media agencies.

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Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Analyst ratings are subjective in nature and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Analyst ratings are based on Morningstar’s analysts’ current expectations about future events and therefore involve unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause such expectations not to occur or to differ significantly from what was expected. Analyst ratings are not guarantees nor should they be viewed as an assessment of a stock's creditworthiness. Ratings, analysis, and other analyst thoughts are provided for informational purposes only; references to securities should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the securities.

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Disclosure:
The commentary, analysis, references to, and performance information contained within Morningstar® StockInvestorSM, except where explicitly noted, reflects that of portfolios owned by Morningstar, Inc. that are invested in accordance with the Tortoise and Hare strategies managed by Morningstar Investment Management LLC, a registered investment adviser and subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. References to "Morningstar" refer to Morningstar, Inc.

Opinions expressed are as of the current date and are subject to change without notice. Morningstar, Inc. and Morningstar Investment Management LLC shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages, or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. This commentary is for informational purposes only and has not been tailored to suit any individual.

The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice, are provided as of the date written, are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security. Please note that references to specific securities or other investment options within this piece should not be considered an offer (as defined by the Securities and Exchange Act) to purchase or sell that specific investment.

This commentary contains certain forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results to differ materially and/or substantially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by those projected in the forward-looking statements for any reason.

Investments in securities are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal.  Prices of securities may fluctuate from time to time and may even become valueless.  Securities in this report are not FDIC-insured, may lose value, and are not guaranteed by a bank or other financial institution. Before making any investment decision, investors should read and consider all the relevant investment product information. Investors should seriously consider if the investment is suitable for them by referencing their own financial position, investment objectives, and risk profile before making any investment decision. There can be no assurance that any financial strategy will be successful.

Common stocks are typically subject to greater fluctuations in market value than other asset classes as a result of factors such as a company's business performance, investor perceptions, stock market trends and general economic conditions.

All Morningstar Stock Analyst Notes were published by Morningstar, Inc. The Weekly Roundup contains all Analyst Notes that relate to holdings in Morningstar, Inc.'s Tortoise and Hare Portfolios. Morningstar's analysts are employed by Morningstar, Inc. or its subsidiaries.  In the United States, that subsidiary is Morningstar Research Services LLC, which is registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

David Harrell may own stocks from the Tortoise and Hare Portfolios in his personal accounts.

 
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